\u0130ran’dan bo\u011faz\u0131n kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin resmi a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131lmazken uluslararas\u0131 medyada yay\u0131mlanan baz\u0131 haberlerde \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu’nun b\u00f6lgeden ge\u00e7ecek gemilere “Hi\u00e7bir geminin ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin verilmiyor.” mesaj\u0131n\u0131 iletti\u011fi \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda ticari gemi trafi\u011finin tamamen durmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, baz\u0131 konteyner gemilerinin Umman K\u00f6rfezi ve bo\u011faz hatt\u0131nda rota de\u011fi\u015ftirerek geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, baz\u0131 ticari gemilerin ise K\u00f6rfez’de beklemeye ge\u00e7ti\u011fi g\u00f6zlendi.<\/p>\n
Uzmanlar, sald\u0131r\u0131lar s\u0131ras\u0131nda kapal\u0131 olan piyasalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla jeopolitik risk priminin h\u0131zla fiyatlara yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Tahran’\u0131n elindeki en stratejik bask\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri g\u00f6r\u00fclen H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7iyor. Bu hacmin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00c7in ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Asya piyasalar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyor.<\/p>\n
Deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan ham petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 3’te 1’i bu stratejik ge\u00e7it \u00fczerinden k\u00fcresel pazarlara ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle Suudi Arabistan ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri gibi Orta Do\u011fu \u00fcreticilerinin ham petrol ve kondensat sevkiyat\u0131nda bu koridor kritik rol \u00fcstleniyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel do\u011fal gaz ticaretinin de yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20’si bu kritik su yolundan ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran y\u00f6netimi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131 kapatma tehdidini zaman zaman g\u00fcndeme getirse de bu se\u00e7enek, fiili bir hamleden ziyade stratejik bask\u0131 unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n
Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nin giri\u015finde yer alan dar deniz koridorunun kapanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik iddialar\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
– Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda 10 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor<\/p>\n
Washington Arap K\u00f6rfez \u00dclkeleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Misafir \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Kate Dourian, AA muhabirine do\u011frudan askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ge\u00e7ilmesinin piyasa hesaplamalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Dourian, piyasalar\u0131n pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc sert tepki vermeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, “Asya piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda 10 dolar ve \u00fcst\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f olabilir. Nihai etki, geli\u015fmelerin piyasa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131na kadar nas\u0131l ilerleyece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.” dedi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n olas\u0131 misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ifade eden Dourian, Tahran’\u0131n \u0130srail, ABD ve b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefik hedeflere sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini ancak enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 riskinin tamamen ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Dourian, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n ticari gemilere ge\u00e7i\u015f uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n petrol piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek, “H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, Katar’\u0131n LNG ihracat\u0131n\u0131n da ana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 konumunda. ABD’nin b\u00fcy\u00fck askeri \u00fcss\u00fcne ev sahipli\u011fi yapan El-Udeid Hava \u00dcss\u00fc’n\u00fcn bulundu\u011fu Katar’\u0131n da misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hedefi olma riski, LNG y\u00fcklemelerinde \u00f6nleyici tedbirlerin artmas\u0131na ve LNG fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ramaya neden olabilir.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
Washington’dan gelen siyasi mesajlar\u0131n da piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Dourian, s\u00f6zlerini \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc:<\/p>\n
“\u015eu a\u015famada Orta Do\u011fu petrol \u00fcretimi veya ihracat\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli kesinti do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. K\u00f6rfez \u00fcreticileri, \u00fcretime normal \u015fekilde devam ederken ana ihracat terminalleri faaliyetlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ancak piyasalar\u0131n hassasiyeti, arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 tampon kapasitenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel yedek \u00fcretim kapasitesinin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinde yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Tanker trafi\u011findeki yava\u015flama bile piyasalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Asya pazarlar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle h\u0131zl\u0131 etkilenecek. \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi \u00fclkeler, K\u00f6rfez petrol\u00fcne b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. As\u0131l belirleyici unsur, \u0130ran’\u0131n sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 olacak.”<\/p>\n
– Brent petrolde y\u00fczde 50’ye varan art\u0131\u015f senaryosu<\/p>\n
George Mason \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi ve Enerji Uzman\u0131 Umud Shokri de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda piyasalar\u0131n ilk a\u015famada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc volatilite ve sert fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla tepki verece\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “Arz korkular\u0131 erken d\u00f6nemde bask\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Brent petrol fiyat\u0131, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta y\u00fczde 20-50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckselebilir.” g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Shokri, stratejik rezervlerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n piyasa \u015fokunu k\u0131smen azaltabilece\u011fini ancak panik al\u0131mlar\u0131, spek\u00fclatif hareketler ve jeopolitik risk primini tamamen ortadan kald\u0131ramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak, “Alternatif arz kanallar\u0131 devreye girerse zamanla fiyatlar dengelenebilir ancak k\u0131sa vadede hedge i\u015flemleri ve belirsizlik dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011faz\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla petrol ve LNG arz kesintilerinin k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar\u0131 100-150 dolar band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ABD’de benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatan Shokri, “ABD’de benzin fiyatlar\u0131, mevcut seviyelere g\u00f6re galon ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 1-2 dolar veya daha fazla artabilir. Bu durum ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve \u00fcretim maliyetlerini y\u00fckselterek ekonomi genelinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Etkiler t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131na, g\u0131da ve sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131na da yay\u0131labilir.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Shokri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n askeri ve diplomatik gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyece\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, s\u00f6zlerini \u015f\u00f6yle tamamlad\u0131:<\/p>\n
“Bo\u011faz\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle ABD ve m\u00fcttefiklerinin ge\u00e7i\u015fi yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7mesi halinde daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 askeri m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde resesyon riski gibi k\u00fcresel ekonomik etkiler, diplomatik bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rarak gerilimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. B\u00f6ylece k\u0131sa vadede askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, sonras\u0131nda ise ekonomik maliyetler artt\u0131k\u00e7a ate\u015fkes y\u00f6n\u00fcnde uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131 artabilir.”<\/p>\n
\u0130ran’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz hamlesine petrol piyasalar\u0131ndan sert yan\u0131t yaz\u0131s\u0131 ilk \u00f6nce K\u0131br\u0131s Hakikat \u00fczerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran’dan bo\u011faz\u0131n kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin resmi a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131lmazken uluslararas\u0131 medyada yay\u0131mlanan baz\u0131 haberlerde \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu’nun b\u00f6lgeden ge\u00e7ecek gemilere “Hi\u00e7bir geminin ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin verilmiyor.” mesaj\u0131n\u0131 iletti\u011fi \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Bununla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’nda ticari gemi trafi\u011finin tamamen durmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, baz\u0131 konteyner gemilerinin Umman K\u00f6rfezi ve bo\u011faz hatt\u0131nda rota de\u011fi\u015ftirerek geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, baz\u0131 ticari gemilerin ise K\u00f6rfez’de beklemeye […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36105,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kibris"],"yoast_head":"\n